Natalie Portman Is a Revelation in 'Black Swan'

In Darren Aronofsky's dark psychological drama Black Swan, Natalie Portman is so fragile in the early scenes she seems on the verge of breaking. The camera follows her close -- the crane of her neck, the sway of her arms, the arch of her feet as she rises en pointe. And when she speaks, the voice is childlike, floating barely above a whisper. She does a lot of her acting in the earliest scenes with her body, so terribly thin, worked mercilessly for her art -- the actor for the demands of a script, for the stage she commands. And as the film careens to its breathtaking finish, the actress transforms into something darker, something fully visceral and sexual and magnificent. "Perfect," is what Portman's Nina says at the close.

Believe the hype: Black Swan and Natalie Portman are as good as they say. She, perhaps, better than she's ever been. Her performance here surpasses her Oscar-nominated work in 2004's Closer.

Portman competes with Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), and Hilary Swank (Conviction) for the lead actress Screen Actor's Guild award. So far, I've seen the three who've gotten the most buzz this award season, Portman, Benning and Lawrence. Without a doubt, the Actor, and by extension, the Oscar, should go to Portman. And though I enjoyed Inception, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right and Social Network, the film that kept me on the edge from the opening was Black Swan, which is, so far, my favorite film this season.

On "True Grit"

"True Grit" -- the latest Coen brothers offering -- is funny, packed with action, and a much more satisfying film than "No Country for Old Men." That's partly because "Grit" has a definite ending and "Grit" clearly IDs the good and the bad guys. There is no ambiguity here, and you begin Mattie Ross' adventure in her corner. Which brings me to award season 2010-2011. I wrote in my last post that there were no front-runners in the supporting actress race. Hailee Steinfeld should be competing for lead here, but she's young and she and her studio have her in the lesser category. Which is all good. Her only competition is probably Helena Bohnam Carter who plays Queen Elizabeth, the Queen Consort, in "The King's Speech."

My Notes on the Season

With the Golden Globe and SAG nods out, the season stands as such:

1. Momentum for best picture stands with 'Social Network.' Though 'The Kings Speech' is still a favorite, Social Network has the momentum of, say, 'Slumdog' and 'Hurt Locker.'

2. Best Actor to beat is Colin Firth. I don't see James Franco pulling an upset in this category.

3. Best Actress; Natalie Portman. Annette Benning could still take this one, but I don't see it happening.

4. Supporting Actor -- Methinks Christian Bale. He's the only actor of note with some serious buzz building around his performance in this category. And with 'The Fighter' doing well with critics and at the box office, a win in this category makes sense.

5. Supporting Actress. Wide open. No talk like the talk for Monique.

6. Animated Film. Toy Story 3.

68th Annual Golden Globe Nods Announced

There were few surprises today when the Hollywood Foreign Press announced nominations for the 68th Annual Golden Globes.

Perhaps the biggest of the morning was Halle Berry's nomination for the little seen, little discussed "Frankie and Alice." The Emmy, Globe and Oscar champ nabbed the only unexpected nomination for lead actress in a motion picture-drama. She competes with Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan) and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine). If Berry can nab a Screen Actor's Guild nomination, she may find herself with another Oscar bid (the win this year is Natalie Portman's to lose).

Everything else -- as expected and, perhaps, as it should be. The films with the most nominations were :

• THE KING’S SPEECH 7
• THE FIGHTER 6
• THE SOCIAL NETWORK 6
• BLACK SWAN 4
• INCEPTION 4
• THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT 4
• 127 HOURS 3

The TV categories saw a wider distribution of nominations:

• GLEE 5
• 30 ROCK 3
• BOARDWALK EMPIRE 3
• DEXTER 3
• THE GOOD WIFE 3
• MAD MEN 3
• MODERN FAMILY 3
• PILLARS OF THE EARTH 3
• TEMPLE GRANDIN 3
  

Upcoming: 'For Colored Girls'

Tyler Perry seems to have stepped his game up with the forthcoming "For Colored Girls," the screen adaptation of Ntozake Shange's play "For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow Is Enuf."

The film stars Thandie Newton, Whoopi Goldberg, Anika Noni Rose, Kerry Washington and Janet Jackson.

The trailer, below, is serious.

New Harry Potter Trailer Released; Looks Awesome

Seriously, just watch.

Natalie Portman Gets Early Oscar Buzz

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that actress Natalie Portman is getting serious early buzz for Academy Award contention. Film journo Tim O'Neil says while it's still a bit early in the season, Portman, the lead actress in Darren Aronofsky's dark drama "Black Swan," has a few things on her side:

1) DIVA APPEAL: In "Black Swan," Portman gives in dance what many past winners did in song -- the full-throttle diva performance: Barbra Streisand ("Funny Girl"), Liza Minnelli ("Cabaret") and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose"). Unfortunately, ballet has played only a minor role at Oscars past, so it's hard to look backward for guidance to what will happen ahead. "The Turning Point" spawned two best actress nominees (who probably canceled each other out in the voting), Shirley MacLaine and Anne Bancroft, but they played dancers past their prime, not bouncing ferociously and constantly on stage.

2) GET PHYSICAL: Throughout the two hours of "Black Swan," Portman gives an even more athletic performance than Hilary Swank did when boxing her way to an Oscar victory for "Million Dollar Baby."

3) THE BABE FACTOR: Those notoriously frisky good ol' boys in the motion picture academy have clearly turned the best actress competition into a beauty contest in recent years: Sandra Bullock ("Blind Side"), Charlize Theron ("Monster"), Nicole Kidman ("The Hours"), Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), Julia Roberts ("Erin Brockovich"), Gwyneth Paltrow ("Shakespeare in Love") plus many more examples in between and earlier. Portman is knockout gorgeous in "Black Swan."

4) THE SEX FACTOR: Overt eroticism used to be a turnoff at the Oscars in more prudish times, but nowadays we're seeing those academy gents get excited by sexy roles. Some cynics say Kate Winslet ("The Reader") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") wouldn't have won without their brazen sex scenes. In "Black Swan," Portman has steamy masturbation and lesbian scenes.

Check out the trailer:

'Inception' Is Great Entertainment

"It's gratifying to experience a summer movie with large visual ambitions and with nothing more or less on its mind than (as Shakespeare said) a dream that hath no bottom." -- Michael Phillips, the Chicago Tribune.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Coming Soon: John Lennon Biopic

Here's a trailer for Nowhere Boy, a biopic of the early life of John Lennon. Looks good.

Critics Schmitics. Airbender Was Enjoyable

Yes, there were slow moments. But overall, The Last Airbender stayed true to the spirit of "Book One: Water" of the animated series. Granted, I saw it in 2-D, not 3. And that's probably how it was supposed to be viewed before the scramble for 3-D flourishes brought on by Avatar. But, yes, the movie scored only 8 percent on RottenTomatoes because 1) most of the critics didn't watch the cartoon series on which it was based and 2) they weren't the audience anyway. I'm hoping for a part two. The movie debuted in No. 2 and has since grossed $62.5 million.

Mad Men, Glee Top Emmy Nods

From the first commercial for the sneak peak way back when, I knew Glee would be damn good TV. And it's place as one of the most affecting and addicting new comedies ever was solidified today when it nabbed 19 Emmy nominations, including acting nods for Lea Michele, Matthew Morrison, Jane Lynch and Chris Colfer. Neil Patrick Harris and Kristin Chenoweth are nominated for their guest turns on the series.

Our other favorite show, Mad Men, was nominated 17 times. And this year, January Jones -- who seriously killed it last season as Betty Draper -- is nominated for female lead in a drama. Christina Hendricks and Elisabeth Moss compete in the supporting actress race, John Hamm gets another lead male nod and John Slattery competes for a supporting actor award.

Other standouts:

• Showtime's crazy spectacular Nurse Jackie (did you see the last minute of the second season finale!) nominated for best comedy and actress (Edie Falco)
• That guiltiest of guilty pleasures, True Blood got a nomination for dramatic series (disappointed there were no acting nods for Anna Paquin who plays Sookie and Nelsan Ellis who plays Lafayette)
• You Don't Know Jack, HBO's Dr. Kevorkian bioflic starring Al Pacino (nominated for lead actor) as well as Brenda Vaccaro and Susan Sarandon, who compete in the supporting actress race
• Mary Kay Place and Sissy Spacek, both nominated for their work on Big Love
  

Check out the full list of nominations at The Envelope at the Los Angeles Times.

New Trailer for Harry Potter and the Dealthy Hallows

This, my friends, looks like its going to be sick! Part 1 hits theaters Nov. 16.

Coming in October -- 'Red'

Bruce Willis hasn't been in a movie I've wanted to see in many, many, many years. That changes now with "Red," a new action flick set to hit theaters in October. He stars opposite Helen Mirren, who hasn't appeared in a bad movie in many, many years. Check out the trailer.

Official Trailer: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1

Whatever my feelings about the last Harry Potter flick, I'm still very much interested in seeing the next movie. And this, the second look I've seen of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1, looks bloody brilliant. Movie comes out Nov. 19.

And they said 'Precious' wouldn't get work

The Oscar-nominated, Spirit Award-winning actress Gabourey Sidibe took some heavy criticism from the likes of Howard Stern after the Academy Awards. He said she was too big to make it in Hollywood. That she wouldn't get another role. This summer, Gabby will be seen in Laura Linney's new Showtime series, The Big C. In it, she plays the anti-Precious, and the show looks damn good.

HBO's Treme: Thank You Khandi Alexander

For some weeks, I lamented the lack of tangible story in HBO's Treme. Though the music was kick ass, the stories didn't seem to be going anywhere. There was, however, a character of interest, LaDonna Baptiste-Williams, portrayed on the show by actress Khandi Alexander.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that Alexander was excellent in the role. But that's not the half of it. In Sunday's episode, "Smoke Me a Peace Pipe," Alexander delivers a gut-punch of a performance. And most times she's not saying a word.

Weeks after Katrina and LaDonna's brother, Daymo, has not been found. In this episode, she finds him dead and stored in the back of a truck, a stand-in for a county morgue that had been destroyed by Katrina. The scenes that follow are the best that HBO has delivered in years. In them, Alexander gives Treme a reason for being.

Despite its authentic portrayal of a post-Katrina New Orleans, the inside baseball of local bureaucracy, the obvious references to local New Orleans celebrities and the presence of an Oscar-nominated actress (Melissa Leo as attorney Antoinette Bernette), Treme has thus far lacked anything resembling a full soul. It was too clinical. A bit cold despite its setting. And the central characters were never on screen long enough for us to know them beyond general details of their circumstances.

"Smoke Me a Peace Pipe" is a bit of a turning point. Alexander -- "so real, so regular, so extraordinary" says the Washington Post -- softens us a bit to the other narratives coming together around her. If she could reside in this world, perhaps there's something to this show.

Lindsay Lohan in a Trailer...and it Looks Good

Saw this trailer today for Machete, from directors Robert Rodriguez and Ethan Maniquis. First, I was surprised that I enjoyed this trailer (Rodriguez's last didn't interest me much). Second, and the reason I'm writing this, is Lindsay Lohan has a small part here ... and I thought her career was dead. It could still be. Only time will tell. Anyway, Machete is due out in September.

Trailer: Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World

Arrested Development may have ended four years ago, but that hasn't stopped Michael Cera from playing George-Michael Blooth. This isn't a criticism. George-Michael was a funny kid, and Cera strikes gold whenever he taps into that adolescent awkwardness. Next up for him: Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. The trailer looks kick-ass, a bit like My Super Ex-Girlfriend on speed.

Al Pacino as Jack Kevorkian

Al Pacino has never been better. Not in Scent of a Woman, which won him an Oscar (that award should have gone to Denzel Washington for Malcolm X, but that's a conversation for another time). Not in Dick Tracy. or Dog Day Afternoon. Or even The Godfather.

His work in You Don't Know Jack is genius. He doesn't imitate the euthanasia activist (and uber-narcissist) Jack Kevorkian. He channels him. It's eerie how spot-on this performance is. Makes Jamie Foxx's Ray performance look like child's play.

The closest comparison would be Helen Mirren in The Queen. Or Drew Barrymore in Grey Gardens. Performances that ring so true the actor and the individual are fused in my mind.

I foresee an Emmy nod, if not win, for Pacino.

Some Color on 'Masterpiece'

Masterpiece Theatre has been something of a one-note series for as long as I could remember: screen adaptations of novels about white people in England. Some variety of Dickens or Austen.

The new adaptation of Andrea Levy's Small Island infuses the Sunday night dramatic program with new life. I've watched Masterpiece Theatre since elementary school. It's good to see black folks in principle roles. Let's hope this isn't the last time.

Synopsis from the PBS site: Born into a broken home and an impoverished life in Jamaica, Hortense (Naomie Harris) longs for a fulfilling life in England; one with a fine house and a doorbell. The door of opportunity swings open, and Hortense is married and on her way to the promised land of post-war Britain. Steadfast dreams are soon tested by hard realities as Hortense and her husband Gilbert (David Oyelowo) face racism and poverty. In the small-minded country, their only saving grace is Queenie (Ruth Wilson, Jane Eyre). But Queenie faces her own disillusionment, married to the kind but dull Bernard (Benedict Cumberbatch, The Last Enemy). Bonded by high hopes and broken dreams, these four lives fuse together in a powerful and hopeful story of love and fulfillment. Small Island is based on the award-winning, bestselling novel by Andrea Levy.

First Look: Deathly Hallows

Because I didn't care much for the the film adaptation, I never bothered removing the cellophane from the Half-Blood Prince DVD I purchased some time ago. So I was surprised to learn while browsing Mugglenet.com that Warner Brothers hid a sneak peak of the Deathly Hallows in the DVD extras. The teaser looks cool. But, as we learned from Half Blood Prince, a good trailer does not a good movie make. Check it out:

Treme: Some Words

For reasons that may be obvious to some of my friends, I'll reserve the full weight of my opinion when writing about Treme, David Simon's new HBO series.

Simon brought us The Corner and The Wire, the latter being television's most perfect dramatic series -- ever. The Corner was almost as good, each drawing from Simon's time as a beat reporter in Baltimore.

Treme ain't The Corner, and Treme ain't The Wire.

Both of those shows hooked me immediately. The characters were flesh-and-blood, full-bodied people with stories that seemed to matter.

Don't get me wrong: Some of Treme is good. Khandi Alexander (The Corner) is excellent as the bar owner Ladonna Batiste-Williams; same goes for Rob Brown (The Express, Stop-Loss) who plays Delmond Lambreaux, a trumpet player who returns to New Orleans only because his father (a somewhat disappointing Clarke Peters from The Wire) is a loon who's so hell bent on relaunching his defunct Mardi Gras troop he's living in a run-down building that he doesn't own.

I still don't know what to make of Treme. The storylines are connected only by the location. And while I don't think a show based in post-Katrina New Orleans is an impossibility, I think the idea needs to be secondary to the story, to the lives of the people being brought to screen.

Take, for example, Mad Men. The setting is interesting - ad agency in 1960s America. But the show's life-blood are those fractured relationships and raw emotions.

More can be said about this, but I'll leave it there. I'm hoping things start to come together in the next couple of episodes.

Review: Clash of the Titanss

The critics may have been underwhelmed, but Clash of the Titans kicked major ass. All you gotta know about this movie is this: Gods, monsters, sandals, maidens, swords, Voldemort as Hades and the Kraken!

Plot Problems in Oliver Stone's New Wall Street

So, I just saw this trailer for Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, Oliver Stone's much-belated follow-up to the 1987 classic, Wall Street. Michael Douglas is back as Gordon Gekko. This time, the upstart protege who falls victim to the machinations of Mr. Gekko is Shia LeBeouf, playing a guy who is engaged to Gekko's daughter, Winnie (Carey Mulligan). Funny thing about this plot line: In the original Wall Street, Gordon Gekko didn't have a daughter. He had a son named Rudy (played by Sean Stone). Unless that little boy had a sex change (hell, this is 2010) or Mulligan's playing a bastard child of a mistress (like maybe Daryl Hannah's character Darien), this storyline makes no sense.

Why I Love Reality TV: What Chilli Wants

Check out this trailer for the new VH1 series, What Chilli Wants. It's celebreality at its finest.

VH1 TV Shows | Music Videos | Celebrity Photos | News & Gossip

Trailer Alert: Robin Hood

(Russell Crowe as Maximus... or Robin Hood)

It's about time Russell Crowe, an Oscar winner, actually starred in a movie people wanted to watch. I mean Gladiator was 10 years ago!

Robin Hood is due out in May. In it, Crowe plays a character that looks very much like Maximus. We're hoping the script includes the lines -- "My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the next."

Trailer Alert: The Last Airbender

New trailer for the live-action adaptation of the Avatar series, M. Night Shamalan's The Last Airbender, is out. I'm still unconvinced about Dev Patel as Zuko, but this trailer -- the third so far -- looks kinda hot.

Under the Radar: Taraji P. Henson

Taraji P. Henson got an Academy Award nomination for her supporting role in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button a year ago. But even then, most people didn't take her nomination seriously. They understood it to be some due recognition for a day player who's proven herself time and again in smaller roles -- as the pregnant prostitute in Hustle & Flow, for example. But nothing more.

Another role, however, something that came later than Henson's Oscar-nominated work as Brad Pitt's adoptive mother, proves this actress has some ridiculously serious chops.

Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself gives what is perhaps the most complete study of a black female lead in transition that has ever been filmed. And Henson, giving a superbly rich, thoroughly realized performance, carries the weight of this complicated movie -- a movie, mind you, that deals with family, and past trauma, and spirituality, and redemption with some of the same poetry and -- hell, I'll say it -- Negro Truth that I've found in the novels of Toni Morrison.

I kept asking myself: If this were not a Tyler Perry movie, would there have been more buzz about this performance during the season? A better question -- a much more subversive question (and fitting in a year when the first woman director and first African American screenwriter were honored by the Academy): If Perry's movie were about, say, a poor white woman working through her demons and not an attractive, middle-class black woman, would America give a damn?

Just wondering?

Oscarwatch: Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique

With her victory at the Indy Spirit Awards Friday night, Mo'Nique has nabbed every single major award for which she was nominated. For her work as Mary Jones, a supporting role in Precious, Mo'Nique has been honored with the Golden Globe, BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild awards, in addition to being recognized by every critics association of note in the country. I imagine she's already made space on the mantel for Oscar.

Side note: Congrats to Gabourey "Gabbie" Sidibe for her Indy Spirit win. The likelihood that Gabbie will derail the Sandra Bullock freight train to the Oscars is slim, so I'm happy she got her props before a live, general audience at the Spirit Awards.

Ditto for Lee Daniels, for directing. I don't think he'll get an Oscar, but the Spirit Award is well deserved. If you haven't seen it already, Precious comes out in DVD on Tuesday.

Wolverine 2 On the Horizon

The Collider.com reports the sequel to X-Men Origins: Wolverine starts shooting in January 2011. Some critics didn't like the first film, but I thought it was kick-ass. What's more, the guy hired to script this adaptation of Claremont and Miller’s Wolverine tale wrote the first X-Men film.

Check out the synopsis at the Collider.com

Oscarwatch: Best Actress -- Sandra Bullock

Sandra Bullock deserves her Oscar. She's that good in The Blind Side. Her performance is over-the-top when it needs to be, but there's subtle craft at work here. Physically, she's closer to Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich; however the more appropriate comparison would be Helen Mirren in The Queen. Not the look, obviously, but the control that Mirren displayed in that Oscar-winning role. You never quite forget your watching Sandra Bullock. Generally you don't when actors of her fame are on the screen. But she's in rare form, better than she's ever been, essentially carrying the weight of a damn good film on her shoulders.

Trailer Alert: The Last Airbender

Check out the new trailer for The Last Airbender, due out July 2.

(If you're reading this on Facebook and can't see the video window above, go to www.guyaboutmovies.blogspot.com)

Eagerly Anticipating 'The Last Airbender'

I just got through watching the final chapter of the animated series Avatar: The Last Airbender. This is, hands down, one of the best animated series ever.

I hope M. Night Shyamalan doesn't fuck it up royally in his live action version scheduled for release this summer. So as not to be confused with James Cameron's uber-successful Avatar, Shyamalan's movie carries the truncated title The Last Airbender.

The scale of the mythology built into the series is bigger than anything Shyamalan has ever given us, not to mention the special effects necessary for the air, water, fire and earth bending.

So far, we've gotten a single trailer and three images from the set. The casting seems dead on and the trailer was kinda sick. But I've sat through more than my fair share of horrible movies that had awesome trailers.

The final chapter of the animated series is brilliant stuff ... rivaling the "Phoenix Saga" from the X-Men animated series. If you haven't seen it, dude, what are you waiting for. Netflix already!

82nd Annual Academy Award Nominations

Best Picture
"Avatar"
"The Blind Side"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie and Julia"

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, "Nine"
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique, "Precious"

Best Director
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
Lee Daniels, "Precious"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"

Best Animated Feature
"Coraline"
"The Fantastic Mr. Fox"
"The Princess and the Frog"
"The Secret of Kells"
"Up"

Best Foreign Language Film
“Ajami," Israel
“El Secreto de Sus Ojos," Argentina
“The Milk of Sorrow," Peru
“Un Prophète," France
“The White Ribbon," Germany

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, “The Hurt Locker”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, “The Messenger”
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, “A Serious Man”
Bob Peterson, Pete Docter and story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy, “Up”

Best Adapted Screenplay
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, “District 9”
Nick Hornby, “An Education”
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell,Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche,“In the Loop”
Geoffrey Fletcher, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air”

Oscarwatch: And the Nominees Are...

The biggest winner at this morning's Academy Award nomination announcements was the general movie-going public.

Avatar, Up, The Blind Side and Inglourious Basterds -- popular movies viewed and appreciated by more than the snoots who write movie reviews -- were all nominated for the top prize.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the morning was Up's nod for Best Picture.

Everything else seems as expected.

Up competes with Avatar, Up in the Air, District 9, The Blind Side, An Education, Inglorious Basterds, Precious and A Serious Man. Only five of these films have a serious chance at winning -- The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Up in the Air, Basterds and Precious. And with Hurt Locker taking the Director's Guild Award just two days ago, conventional wisdom tells us Kathryn Bigelow's war drama is the film to beat.

The award for Actor in a Lead Role will most likely go to Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), who already picked up Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe wins. He competes against George Clooney (Up in the Air), Collin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman(Invictus) and Jeremy Renner (Hurt Locker). (Note to Academy voters, an upset here would be welcome news come award night. Bridges gives horrible speech.)

In the race for Actress in a Lead Role, the award is Sandra Bullock's to lose. Bullock (Blind Side) competes against Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious) and Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia). Bullock already has a SAG and Globe on her mantel, clear signs as to which way the wind is blowing.

Mo'Nique's Supporting Actress Oscar is in the bag. The comedienne, who won every other major award this season for her work in Precious, "competes" against Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart) and Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air).

And in the Supporting Actor race, Cristophe Waltz (who was genius in Inglourious Basterds), will defend his trophy from Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) and Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones).

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences President Tom Sherak and Oscar-nominated actress Anne Hathaway announced the nominations for 10 of the 24 categories for the 2010 Oscars at 5:30 a.m. this morning.

For a full list, go to Oscar.com.

Men on the Verge... or, in Pursuit of Happiness

(Julianne Moore is brilliant in Tom Ford's A Single Man, but Colin Firth delivers what The New York Post calls a "moving, career redefining performance.")

It's the men who go through the most dramatic emotional changes in (500) Days of Summer, Up in the Air and A Single Man. They lose love. They struggle professionally. They seek redemption or solace or happiness or quiet from pain, grief, an economy beyond the verge.

And the actors charged with presenting these stories to us -- Joseph Gordon-Levitt, George Clooney and Colin Firth, respectively -- each deliver powerhouse, not-to-be-missed performances that eclipse the presence of the women who share the screen with them.

This, of course, is no easy feat. The women in Summer, Air and Single Man do amazing work. Still, it's the men who make the stories work, who make us care when cliche or familiarity or overwrought sentiment would make us turn away in disbelief.

No surprise, Gordon-Levitt, Clooney and Firth have all reaped their share of award-season buzz. Firth, however, has the greatest chance of seeing his name on an Oscar. The buzz sounds the loudest for Firth and Jeff Bridges, who carries the weight of yet another critically acclaimed film on his shoulders (I've yet to see Crazy Heart; that's why I didn't include it in the intro).

Of the three films, A Single Man was the most surprising. From first-time director Tom Ford, the movie tells the painful story of a bereavement. The camera's lens focuses squarely, and often uncomfortably close, in the face of this grief. Firth - known for his work as a romantic lead in Love Actually, the Bridgette Jones Diary films and Pride & Prejudice - delivers what the New York Post calls a career redefining performance -- one that (finally) overshadows his Mr. Darcy from the BBC miniseries.

There are no surprises in Clooney's performance in Up in the Air. He's still cool, a bit detached, funny -- but the story and the screenplay match him perfectly. It's as if films like Michael Clayton were his dry run for this movie. I don't think he deserves an Oscar - or even an Oscar nomination - for this movie. Still, this clever and timely movie would not work without him at its center.

Gordon-Levitt's mostly moping greeting card writer is sympathetic, assessable, familiar. I map the story's conclusion after the first 20 minutes, but still found it entertaining. Gordon-Levitt appears in almost every scene -- in almost every shot. While I expected I'd get annoyed with him after a time, I instead was able to sympathize, started rooting for the kid who should have known better.