Oscars....

Perhaps Melissa Leo may not get the Oscar. Perhaps, but I don't believe this.

Colin Firth will win his Oscar. This I know for sure. As will Natalie Portman and Christian Bale.

And, yes, King's Speech will take best picture. No question.

Tonight isn't about surprises of any kind. It's instead about Hollywood and us celebrating a phenominal year of films. A unexpected good year at the movies.

Where a little bit of genre went beyond convention to produce powerful art (Black Swan), and where a familiar face made us forget, for a moment, the name Darcy and appreciate simply the genius of his craft (Firth).

Where story -- narration that reveals the interior lives of complex folk -- seemed to matter more than blockbusters or pretention.

'King's Speech' Leads Oscar Race, Will Likely Take the Prize

The producers of "The King's Speech" should perhaps begin preparing their speeches for the February 27th Oscar telecast. Their movie is the confirmed front runner in what has been something of a horse race between what was one of the year's other favorite films, "Social Network."

At the end of this morning's announcement of nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, the little British film about stammering King George VI had nabbed 12 nominations, including those for best picture, best director (Tom Hooper), best supporting actress (Helena Bonham Carter), best supporting actor (Geoffrey Rush) and best actor (Colin Firth).

"Social Network" got the Golden Globe and many of the critics awards earlier in the season. But a win for "Speech" at the Producer's Guild last week all but solidified its place as the film to beat come Feb. 27. If history serves as an indicator, however, the likelihood that this British import will be dethroned is slim. In the last 20 years, the Producer's Guild and the Academy have agreed on the best picture selection all but seven times. And since 2007s "No Country for Old Men," they've not wavered.

With that said, I expect not many surprises come Oscar night.

The top prizes will go like this:

Firth should and will win the Oscar for best picture.

Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") should and will win the Oscar for best actress.

Melissa Leo ("The Fighter") will win the Oscar for supporting actress, though this award should perhaps go to her co-star Amy Adams.

And Christian Bale ("The Fighter") should and will win for supporting actor.

The directing award will go to David Fincher for "Social Network."

'King's Speech' on it's way to best picture Oscar?

"King's Speech" nabbed the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards this weekend, turning the tide in a film season that seemed all but assured to crown "Social Network" on Oscar night.

I'm relieved at this. While I enjoyed "Social Network," it lacked a depth of feeling, real people and heart. And what was up with the Asian fetishism!

I believe firmly that "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" were the year's finest films. But "Speech" is also very good -- brilliant acting, writing, directing, cinematography. A meaty film with the snoot factor to boot.

Natalie Portman Is a Revelation in 'Black Swan'

In Darren Aronofsky's dark psychological drama Black Swan, Natalie Portman is so fragile in the early scenes she seems on the verge of breaking. The camera follows her close -- the crane of her neck, the sway of her arms, the arch of her feet as she rises en pointe. And when she speaks, the voice is childlike, floating barely above a whisper. She does a lot of her acting in the earliest scenes with her body, so terribly thin, worked mercilessly for her art -- the actor for the demands of a script, for the stage she commands. And as the film careens to its breathtaking finish, the actress transforms into something darker, something fully visceral and sexual and magnificent. "Perfect," is what Portman's Nina says at the close.

Believe the hype: Black Swan and Natalie Portman are as good as they say. She, perhaps, better than she's ever been. Her performance here surpasses her Oscar-nominated work in 2004's Closer.

Portman competes with Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), and Hilary Swank (Conviction) for the lead actress Screen Actor's Guild award. So far, I've seen the three who've gotten the most buzz this award season, Portman, Benning and Lawrence. Without a doubt, the Actor, and by extension, the Oscar, should go to Portman. And though I enjoyed Inception, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right and Social Network, the film that kept me on the edge from the opening was Black Swan, which is, so far, my favorite film this season.

On "True Grit"

"True Grit" -- the latest Coen brothers offering -- is funny, packed with action, and a much more satisfying film than "No Country for Old Men." That's partly because "Grit" has a definite ending and "Grit" clearly IDs the good and the bad guys. There is no ambiguity here, and you begin Mattie Ross' adventure in her corner. Which brings me to award season 2010-2011. I wrote in my last post that there were no front-runners in the supporting actress race. Hailee Steinfeld should be competing for lead here, but she's young and she and her studio have her in the lesser category. Which is all good. Her only competition is probably Helena Bohnam Carter who plays Queen Elizabeth, the Queen Consort, in "The King's Speech."

My Notes on the Season

With the Golden Globe and SAG nods out, the season stands as such:

1. Momentum for best picture stands with 'Social Network.' Though 'The Kings Speech' is still a favorite, Social Network has the momentum of, say, 'Slumdog' and 'Hurt Locker.'

2. Best Actor to beat is Colin Firth. I don't see James Franco pulling an upset in this category.

3. Best Actress; Natalie Portman. Annette Benning could still take this one, but I don't see it happening.

4. Supporting Actor -- Methinks Christian Bale. He's the only actor of note with some serious buzz building around his performance in this category. And with 'The Fighter' doing well with critics and at the box office, a win in this category makes sense.

5. Supporting Actress. Wide open. No talk like the talk for Monique.

6. Animated Film. Toy Story 3.

68th Annual Golden Globe Nods Announced

There were few surprises today when the Hollywood Foreign Press announced nominations for the 68th Annual Golden Globes.

Perhaps the biggest of the morning was Halle Berry's nomination for the little seen, little discussed "Frankie and Alice." The Emmy, Globe and Oscar champ nabbed the only unexpected nomination for lead actress in a motion picture-drama. She competes with Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan) and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine). If Berry can nab a Screen Actor's Guild nomination, she may find herself with another Oscar bid (the win this year is Natalie Portman's to lose).

Everything else -- as expected and, perhaps, as it should be. The films with the most nominations were :

• THE KING’S SPEECH 7
• THE FIGHTER 6
• THE SOCIAL NETWORK 6
• BLACK SWAN 4
• INCEPTION 4
• THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT 4
• 127 HOURS 3

The TV categories saw a wider distribution of nominations:

• GLEE 5
• 30 ROCK 3
• BOARDWALK EMPIRE 3
• DEXTER 3
• THE GOOD WIFE 3
• MAD MEN 3
• MODERN FAMILY 3
• PILLARS OF THE EARTH 3
• TEMPLE GRANDIN 3