With Golden Globe nods announced, Oscar season officially begins

It's been a quiet film-going year. Think about it: No powerhouses like No Country for Old Men, Crash, American Beauty, Return of the King.

With the announcement of the Golden Globe nominations this week, we at least know the direction in which the wind is blowing.

First, some old familiars will battle for the big prizes: Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep, Phillip Seymore Hoffman, Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn will all receive Oscar nods for their work this year.

Penn, who portrayed 1970s gay rights activist Harvey Milk, will most certainly walk away with his second Academy Award for what is being universally hailed as a "soulful [and] highly ingratiating performance." That is, if come-back story of the year, Mickey Rourke, doesn't pull an upset for The Wrestler.

Winslet is probably the most deserving in the leading lady category. The critics say her work in Revolutionary Road and The Reader is phenomenal. Industry insiders say this will finally be her year.

And the best picture of the year, The Dark Knight, will probably get snubbed in the top category, best film. That prize will probably go to indie sensation Slumdog Millionaire, screen adaptation Revolutionary Road, the epic Curious Case of Benjamin Button, the biopic Milk or the political drama Frost/Nixon.

LA Times film blogger Scott Feinberg warns about not reading too much into the Golden Globe nods. The Globes aren't an Oscar precursor, per se, as the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association "are primarily made up of film journalists, as opposed to filmmakers, who make up the vast majority of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences."

Once the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild of America announce their nominations, we'll be a bit more certain. Still, we know enough now to publish our early predictions.

Here are the top categories.

BEST PICTURE
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Revolutionary Road"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
"Doubt"
"Milk"

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire")
David Fincher ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon")
Sam Mendes ("Revolutionary Road")
Christopher Nolan ("The Dark Knight")
Gus Van Sant ("Milk")

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio ("Revolutionary Road")
Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon")
Sean Penn ("Milk")
Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")
Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler")

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married")
Angelina Jolie ("Changeling")
Meryl Streep ("Doubt")
Kristin Scott Thomas ("I've Loved You So Long")
Kate Winslet ("Revolutionary Road")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ralph Fiennes ("The Duchess")
Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Doubt")
Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight")
Josh Brolin ("Milk")
Michael Shannon ("Revolutionary Road")

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams ("Doubt")
Viola Davis ("Doubt")
Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler")
Kate Winslet ("The Reader")
Taraji P. Henson ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button")

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Dustin Lance Black ("Milk")
Jenny Lumet ("Rachel Getting Married")
Nick Schenck ("Gran Torino")

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
"Gomorra" (Italy)
"I've Loved You So Long" (France)