'Dark Knight' now serious Oscar contender

The Dark Knight became a serious contender for a best picture Oscar today when the Producer's Guild of America named it one of five nominees for its top prize.

Just how accurate has the Producer's Guild been in predicting the best picture Oscar? In the last 10 years, the Producer's Guild predicted Oscar gold six times, and the Producer's Guild winners were always Academy Award nominees.

A Producer's Guild nomination doesn't necessarily mean an Oscar nomination, however. Last year, Michael Clayton, the Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Juno and There Will be Blood competed for the Producer's Guild prize, but Diving Bell didn't get an Oscar nomination. That honor went to Atonement.

So, does the Dark Knight get to compete for the Academy Award? A Producer's Guild win on Jan. 22 will almost guarantee a nomination.

Snapshot of Producer's Guild wins in the last 10 years.

2007: No Country for Old Men (won the Oscar)

2006: Little Miss Sunshine
Lost the Oscar to Departed

2005: Brokeback Mountain
Lost the Oscar to Crash

2004: The Aviator
Lost the Oscar to Million Dollar Baby

2003: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (won the Oscar)

2002: Chicago (won the Oscar)

2001: Moulin Rouge!
Lost the Oscar to Beautiful Mind

2000: Gladiator (won the Oscar)

1999: American Beauty (won the Oscar)

1998: Saving Private Ryan
Lost the Oscar to Shakespeare in Love

1997: Titanic (won the Oscar)