The Oscars: Sean Penn a lock for lead male win

I can say with some certainty that Sean Penn will walk away with his second Academy Award on Feb. 22 for his critically acclaimed work in Milk.

Before the Screen Actors Guild Awards were announced Jan. 25, I thought the wind was blowing in the direction of Mickey Rourke, who received a Golden Globe for his work in The Wrestler.

A Globe is nice.

But an Actor almost always leads to an Oscar.

Only twice since the Guild began doling out acting awards has it failed to predict the Oscar winner in the leading man category. Both times, the circumstances were a bit peculiar.

In 2001, for example, the Guild gave its top male acting prize to Benicio del Toro for Traffic. Del Toro went on to win an Oscar for the same role, but in the supporting category. The leading male Oscar went to Russell Crowe for Gladiator.

Then in 2004, the Guild gave its top award for a male actor to Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. Movies based on comics, cartoons and theme park rides aren’t generally recognized at the Academy Awards (save for the transcendent performance of Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, of course). Penn rightly won the Oscar that year for Mystic River.

Every other year, the Guild has been spot on in this category.

The trend will hold this year.

Penn’s portrayal of Harvey Milk has been universally praised by critics and industry insiders alike. He is a powerhouse film performer. And he’s consistent. He’s been nominated for the Academy Award five times, each time for a leading role. Dead Man Walking. Sweet and Lowdown. I Am Sam. Mystic River. Milk.

With some exception, the Academy seems to expect more than mere transformation from its leading men. It wants a mature body of work, reason to believe the actor receiving the award is more than a flash-in-the-pan, that the performance isn’t a fluke or simply the result of skillful directing and editing. It’s an acknowledgment of skillful craft. Sometimes, a young actor makes his case. Take Adrian Brody in The Pianist or Jamie Foxx in Ray. Those performances were, without question, groundbreaking and deeply felt. Has Rourke shown himself to be that kind of actor?

How hard is it for Rourke to play a down-and-out wrestler (he’s done the boxing thing, right?) with a messed-up face (compare Rourke in 9 ½ Weeks to the man today)? Is he simply playing himself with a Macho Man Randy Savage hairdo and tights? Or is he breaking new ground, moving beyond himself?

Mr. Penn, I say make room on the mantel for that second Oscar.